Predicting the future

I recently had the opportunity to write about an investing idea for a financial publication, the Value Investing Letter. I chose to write about a company that I believed was overvalued. In this particular case, one intellectual conflict about describing my thoughts was that I like the management team of the company quite a lot. Even so, a great management team and a great company can still be richly valued. I am reminded of the adage, “There are no bad investments, only bad prices.”

I enjoyed this exercise of sharing my thoughts in a public forum like this. I am aware that some may agree with my predictions while others will not. Additionally, I could change my mind as I get new information. Regardless, it is an interesting intellectual exercise to describe my thought process and have a public record to assess how well I predicted the future. The time frame in this case should be approximately six months.

One of my favorite quotes is from Yogi Berra: “The hardest thing about forecasting is predicting the future.”

Having shared my thoughts in the newsletter, they are also available to be downloaded as a pdf by clicking this link: Value Investing Letter – Endo’s Generic Problem

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